Canada’s federal government has maintained tighter controls on temporary resident admissions through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which stabilizes permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually while sharply reducing new study and work permits. These measures have produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents, offsetting gains from permanent immigration and natural increase. Statistics Canada data confirm a 0.2 percent population contraction through the first quarter of 2026, following the initial annual decline recorded in 2025, while the Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat overall growth for the full year. Traders price the “No” outcome above 50 percent because current policy trajectories point to a 2026 change that is unlikely to surpass the prior year’s recorded drop in scale.