The Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing internal divisions, economic strain, and the aftermath of 2025-2026 military exchanges with Israel and the United States underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by late September. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the March 2026 succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, authorities have consolidated control through military reorganization, intensified domestic security measures including arrests and executions, and fragile ceasefires that reduced direct external pressure. Historical precedent shows the Islamic Republic enduring similar protests, sanctions, and factional infighting without systemic breakdown, while no coordinated opposition or large-scale security defections have materialized on a timeline short enough to trigger regime change within weeks. Late developments such as renewed U.S. strikes, leadership rifts escalating into paralysis, or sudden mass unrest could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability catalysts given current trajectories.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Падет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Да
2% вероятность
$1,618,581 Объем
$1,618,581 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$1,618,581 Объем
$1,618,581 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing internal divisions, economic strain, and the aftermath of 2025-2026 military exchanges with Israel and the United States underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by late September. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the March 2026 succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, authorities have consolidated control through military reorganization, intensified domestic security measures including arrests and executions, and fragile ceasefires that reduced direct external pressure. Historical precedent shows the Islamic Republic enduring similar protests, sanctions, and factional infighting without systemic breakdown, while no coordinated opposition or large-scale security defections have materialized on a timeline short enough to trigger regime change within weeks. Late developments such as renewed U.S. strikes, leadership rifts escalating into paralysis, or sudden mass unrest could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability catalysts given current trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Объем
$1,618,581Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing internal divisions, economic strain, and the aftermath of 2025-2026 military exchanges with Israel and the United States underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by late September. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the March 2026 succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, authorities have consolidated control through military reorganization, intensified domestic security measures including arrests and executions, and fragile ceasefires that reduced direct external pressure. Historical precedent shows the Islamic Republic enduring similar protests, sanctions, and factional infighting without systemic breakdown, while no coordinated opposition or large-scale security defections have materialized on a timeline short enough to trigger regime change within weeks. Late developments such as renewed U.S. strikes, leadership rifts escalating into paralysis, or sudden mass unrest could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability catalysts given current trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,618,581Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's resilience amid ongoing internal divisions, economic strain, and the aftermath of 2025-2026 military exchanges with Israel and the United States underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by late September. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and the March 2026 succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, authorities have consolidated control through military reorganization, intensified domestic security measures including arrests and executions, and fragile ceasefires that reduced direct external pressure. Historical precedent shows the Islamic Republic enduring similar protests, sanctions, and factional infighting without systemic breakdown, while no coordinated opposition or large-scale security defections have materialized on a timeline short enough to trigger regime change within weeks. Late developments such as renewed U.S. strikes, leadership rifts escalating into paralysis, or sudden mass unrest could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability catalysts given current trajectories.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы