Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database through mid-May, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—up to 0.25 kt equivalent, like the March 17 Ohio event. Historical CNEOS data indicates detectable bolides >=5 kt occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with no tracked near-Earth objects posing impact risks via the Sentry system for the remainder of the year. Enhanced monitoring from surveys like Catalina Sky Survey underscores the rarity, though undetected events remain possible; odds could shift with new satellite or infrasound detections before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,045 ปริมาณ
$300,045 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$300,045 ปริมาณ
$300,045 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database through mid-May, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—up to 0.25 kt equivalent, like the March 17 Ohio event. Historical CNEOS data indicates detectable bolides >=5 kt occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with no tracked near-Earth objects posing impact risks via the Sentry system for the remainder of the year. Enhanced monitoring from surveys like Catalina Sky Survey underscores the rarity, though undetected events remain possible; odds could shift with new satellite or infrasound detections before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$300,045วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database through mid-May, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—up to 0.25 kt equivalent, like the March 17 Ohio event. Historical CNEOS data indicates detectable bolides >=5 kt occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with no tracked near-Earth objects posing impact risks via the Sentry system for the remainder of the year. Enhanced monitoring from surveys like Catalina Sky Survey underscores the rarity, though undetected events remain possible; odds could shift with new satellite or infrasound detections before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$300,045วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton or larger meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events in NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database through mid-May, despite a notable Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—up to 0.25 kt equivalent, like the March 17 Ohio event. Historical CNEOS data indicates detectable bolides >=5 kt occur roughly once every 1-2 years globally, with no tracked near-Earth objects posing impact risks via the Sentry system for the remainder of the year. Enhanced monitoring from surveys like Catalina Sky Survey underscores the rarity, though undetected events remain possible; odds could shift with new satellite or infrasound detections before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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