Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 98% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026 meetings, driven by April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy cost spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling labor market resilience. The Fed's April 28-29 hold, amid record dissent since 1992, reinforced this stance, with major banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs now forecasting steady rates through year-end amid sticky inflation above 2% target. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC looms, but a sharp oil price reversal or abrupt jobless claims surge could challenge consensus, though current data points to prolonged pause.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
การตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
พัก–พัก–พัก 97.7%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.6%
อื่นๆ 1.3%
$1,091,609 ปริมาณ
$1,091,609 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
98%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
2%
อื่นๆ
1%
พัก–พัก–พัก 97.7%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.6%
อื่นๆ 1.3%
$1,091,609 ปริมาณ
$1,091,609 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
$60,858 ปริมาณ
98%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
$41,308 ปริมาณ
2%
อื่นๆ
$245,641 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 98% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026 meetings, driven by April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy cost spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling labor market resilience. The Fed's April 28-29 hold, amid record dissent since 1992, reinforced this stance, with major banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs now forecasting steady rates through year-end amid sticky inflation above 2% target. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC looms, but a sharp oil price reversal or abrupt jobless claims surge could challenge consensus, though current data points to prolonged pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,091,609วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 98% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026 meetings, driven by April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy cost spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling labor market resilience. The Fed's April 28-29 hold, amid record dissent since 1992, reinforced this stance, with major banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs now forecasting steady rates through year-end amid sticky inflation above 2% target. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC looms, but a sharp oil price reversal or abrupt jobless claims surge could challenge consensus, though current data points to prolonged pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,091,609วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 98% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June 2026 meetings, driven by April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy cost spikes from the Iran conflict, alongside April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling labor market resilience. The Fed's April 28-29 hold, amid record dissent since 1992, reinforced this stance, with major banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs now forecasting steady rates through year-end amid sticky inflation above 2% target. Upcoming June 16-17 FOMC looms, but a sharp oil price reversal or abrupt jobless claims surge could challenge consensus, though current data points to prolonged pause.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย