Recent inflation data has driven the market-implied odds for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East developments. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%-3.75% target range for a third consecutive meeting on April 29, citing elevated inflation risks and labor-market strength, with the decision featuring the most dissents since 1992. Traders are now pricing a cautious path ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where updated economic projections could clarify whether persistent price pressures delay easing until 2027, as several major banks have recently forecast.