Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
31°C or below 100.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$58,444 ปริมาณ
$58,444 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
31°C or below
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
31°C or below 100.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$58,444 ปริมาณ
$58,444 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
31°C or below
$11,329 ปริมาณ
Yes
32°C
$6,688 ปริมาณ
No
33°C
$9,402 ปริมาณ
No
34°C
$11,296 ปริมาณ
No
35°C
$5,301 ปริมาณ
No
36°C
$3,307 ปริมาณ
No
37°C
$3,174 ปริมาณ
No
38°C
$2,141 ปริมาณ
No
39°C
$2,188 ปริมาณ
No
40°C
$1,780 ปริมาณ
No
41°C or higher
$1,839 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,444วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,444วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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