Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,984 ปริมาณ
$85,984 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,984 ปริมาณ
$85,984 ปริมาณ
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
$4,487 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$5,414 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$8,090 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$8,511 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$9,999 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$11,262 ปริมาณ
Yes
21°C
$12,254 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$10,385 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$6,885 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$6,168 ปริมาณ
No
25°C or higher
$2,529 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$85,984วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$85,984วันสิ้นสุด
May 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
Official meteorological observations from Spain's State Meteorological Agency confirmed a maximum temperature of 20°C in Madrid on May 16, driving the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for the Iberian Peninsula, where spring warming patterns typically produce daily highs in the 18–22°C range under stable high-pressure systems. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had projected minimal deviation from these baselines in the 48 hours prior, with no significant heat advection or urban heat-island amplification observed. While final official reports can occasionally undergo minor revisions for instrumentation checks, historical precedent shows such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial publication, leaving little realistic scope for market-moving changes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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