Current forecast models from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 16°C at Munich Airport, driven by moderate high pressure, light northerly flow, and partial cloud cover that restricts peak heating. This setup positions the 16°C outcome as the market leader at 51.5% implied probability, with afternoon readings likely ranging 15–17°C based on boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing. Historical May climatology for Munich averages 17–19°C highs, so today’s conditions reflect a modest cool anomaly consistent with recent northerly advection. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and surface observations for any late-day warming that could shift probabilities toward 17°C.