Forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over central Texas, supporting mostly clear skies and light southerly winds that limit nocturnal cooling for Austin on August 29. This setup favors overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 70s, consistent with late-summer climatology. The market’s near-even split between 67°F-or-below and 86°F-or-higher outcomes reflects ensemble spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, which can alter radiative cooling rates by several degrees. Minor model disagreements on exact dew-point advection and cloud-cover timing create the observed clustering around both cooler and warmer extremes rather than the most probable mid-70s range.