Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble guidance has converged on an overnight low near 10°C at the Paris-Le Bourget reference station for May 17, under moderating northerly flow and building high pressure that supports moderate radiative cooling beneath partly cloudy skies. This follows a brief cool spell earlier in the week, with daytime highs recovering to 18–19°C and model runs now clustering tightly in the 9–11°C range. Historical May climatology for Paris places the typical overnight minimum at approximately 10°C, aligning with the current observational baseline and reinforcing trader consensus on the 10°C bracket. A meaningful shift would require an unexpected model revision or localized measurement variance at the official station, though latest data releases show little room for such deviation before resolution.