Robust consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.1–2.5% in 2026, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5–4.6%. Recent data show the economy entering the second half of 2026 with resilient activity and a shift toward investment-led growth that offsets softer consumer spending. This outlook underpins the market-implied 96% probability against negative growth. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift sentiment include escalation of trade tensions, sharper energy price shocks, or abrupt policy reversals that erode business confidence and tip quarterly readings into contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% โอกาส
$32,234 ปริมาณ
$32,234 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
4% โอกาส
$32,234 ปริมาณ
$32,234 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.1–2.5% in 2026, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5–4.6%. Recent data show the economy entering the second half of 2026 with resilient activity and a shift toward investment-led growth that offsets softer consumer spending. This outlook underpins the market-implied 96% probability against negative growth. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift sentiment include escalation of trade tensions, sharper energy price shocks, or abrupt policy reversals that erode business confidence and tip quarterly readings into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,234วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.1–2.5% in 2026, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5–4.6%. Recent data show the economy entering the second half of 2026 with resilient activity and a shift toward investment-led growth that offsets softer consumer spending. This outlook underpins the market-implied 96% probability against negative growth. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift sentiment include escalation of trade tensions, sharper energy price shocks, or abrupt policy reversals that erode business confidence and tip quarterly readings into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,234วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.1–2.5% in 2026, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5–4.6%. Recent data show the economy entering the second half of 2026 with resilient activity and a shift toward investment-led growth that offsets softer consumer spending. This outlook underpins the market-implied 96% probability against negative growth. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift sentiment include escalation of trade tensions, sharper energy price shocks, or abrupt policy reversals that erode business confidence and tip quarterly readings into contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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