Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Fernando Haddad 9.5%
Kim Kataguiri 5.2%
Márcio França 2.0%
$20,401 ปริมาณ
$20,401 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Fernando Haddad
10%
Kim Kataguiri
5%
Márcio França
2%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Fernando Haddad 9.5%
Kim Kataguiri 5.2%
Márcio França 2.0%
$20,401 ปริมาณ
$20,401 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,702 ปริมาณ
82%
Fernando Haddad
$3,042 ปริมาณ
10%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,581 ปริมาณ
5%
Márcio França
$2,190 ปริมาณ
2%
Erika Hilton
$2,885 ปริมาณ
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,401วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,401วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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