Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUK GDP growth in Q1 2026?
UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?
0.9-1.2% 100.0%
Negative <1%
0.0-0.3% <1%
0.3-0.6% <1%
$53,225 ปริมาณ
$53,225 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
Negative
No
0.0-0.3%
No
0.3-0.6%
No
0.6-0.9%
No
0.9-1.2%
Yes
1.2-1.5%
No
1.5-1.8%
No
1.8%+
No
0.9-1.2% 100.0%
Negative <1%
0.0-0.3% <1%
0.3-0.6% <1%
$53,225 ปริมาณ
$53,225 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
Negative
$6,997 ปริมาณ
No
0.0-0.3%
$11,247 ปริมาณ
No
0.3-0.6%
$4,651 ปริมาณ
No
0.6-0.9%
$16,309 ปริมาณ
No
0.9-1.2%
$4,902 ปริมาณ
Yes
1.2-1.5%
$3,810 ปริมาณ
No
1.5-1.8%
$1,654 ปริมาณ
No
1.8%+
$3,654 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$53,225วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$53,225วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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