**Below-normal Atlantic activity this season, driven by persistent atmospheric stability, has kept hurricane formation minimal through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update lowered its seasonal forecast to 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, citing a 75% chance of below-normal activity amid El Niño influences that suppress development through stronger wind shear and drier air. Only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) have formed so far, with zero hurricanes recorded. Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no organized systems threatening U.S. landfall in the remaining half of the month, when climatological steering patterns and the brief window before the early-September peak further reduce odds. Traders weigh these verified observations and model consensus against the low historical frequency of late-August U.S. hurricane strikes in similarly suppressed years.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
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Sep 1, 2026
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Sep 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.**Below-normal Atlantic activity this season, driven by persistent atmospheric stability, has kept hurricane formation minimal through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update lowered its seasonal forecast to 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, citing a 75% chance of below-normal activity amid El Niño influences that suppress development through stronger wind shear and drier air. Only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) have formed so far, with zero hurricanes recorded. Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no organized systems threatening U.S. landfall in the remaining half of the month, when climatological steering patterns and the brief window before the early-September peak further reduce odds. Traders weigh these verified observations and model consensus against the low historical frequency of late-August U.S. hurricane strikes in similarly suppressed years.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,065วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.**Below-normal Atlantic activity this season, driven by persistent atmospheric stability, has kept hurricane formation minimal through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update lowered its seasonal forecast to 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, citing a 75% chance of below-normal activity amid El Niño influences that suppress development through stronger wind shear and drier air. Only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) have formed so far, with zero hurricanes recorded. Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no organized systems threatening U.S. landfall in the remaining half of the month, when climatological steering patterns and the brief window before the early-September peak further reduce odds. Traders weigh these verified observations and model consensus against the low historical frequency of late-August U.S. hurricane strikes in similarly suppressed years.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,065วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Below-normal Atlantic activity this season, driven by persistent atmospheric stability, has kept hurricane formation minimal through mid-August.** NOAA’s August 6 update lowered its seasonal forecast to 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, citing a 75% chance of below-normal activity amid El Niño influences that suppress development through stronger wind shear and drier air. Only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) have formed so far, with zero hurricanes recorded. Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no organized systems threatening U.S. landfall in the remaining half of the month, when climatological steering patterns and the brief window before the early-September peak further reduce odds. Traders weigh these verified observations and model consensus against the low historical frequency of late-August U.S. hurricane strikes in similarly suppressed years.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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