Canada’s federal government has implemented successive reductions in temporary resident admissions through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting a non-permanent resident share below 5 percent by the end of 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate these measures will produce flat overall population growth in 2026 as net outflows of non-permanent residents largely offset the 380,000 permanent resident target. Statistics Canada data already recorded the first annual national decline on record in 2025, driven by the same policy shift. Traders therefore assign a 60 percent probability that any 2026 change will fall short of that prior drop, reflecting the stabilizing effect of lower inflows and continued outflows amid housing and service pressures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
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Apr 30, 2027
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Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has implemented successive reductions in temporary resident admissions through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting a non-permanent resident share below 5 percent by the end of 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate these measures will produce flat overall population growth in 2026 as net outflows of non-permanent residents largely offset the 380,000 permanent resident target. Statistics Canada data already recorded the first annual national decline on record in 2025, driven by the same policy shift. Traders therefore assign a 60 percent probability that any 2026 change will fall short of that prior drop, reflecting the stabilizing effect of lower inflows and continued outflows amid housing and service pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,523วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has implemented successive reductions in temporary resident admissions through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting a non-permanent resident share below 5 percent by the end of 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate these measures will produce flat overall population growth in 2026 as net outflows of non-permanent residents largely offset the 380,000 permanent resident target. Statistics Canada data already recorded the first annual national decline on record in 2025, driven by the same policy shift. Traders therefore assign a 60 percent probability that any 2026 change will fall short of that prior drop, reflecting the stabilizing effect of lower inflows and continued outflows amid housing and service pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,523วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s federal government has implemented successive reductions in temporary resident admissions through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting a non-permanent resident share below 5 percent by the end of 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate these measures will produce flat overall population growth in 2026 as net outflows of non-permanent residents largely offset the 380,000 permanent resident target. Statistics Canada data already recorded the first annual national decline on record in 2025, driven by the same policy shift. Traders therefore assign a 60 percent probability that any 2026 change will fall short of that prior drop, reflecting the stabilizing effect of lower inflows and continued outflows amid housing and service pressures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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