Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Madrid on May 19?
27°C 29%
26°C 27%
25°C 13%
28°C 9%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
9%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
3%
27°C 29%
26°C 27%
25°C 13%
28°C 9%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
9%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDRecent ensemble forecasts from major global models highlight a ridge of high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula as the key driver behind the market's tight clustering around 26–27°C for Madrid's May 19 high. Clear skies and light winds are expected to allow strong daytime heating, yet modest moisture advection and slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keep the most likely outcomes narrowly separated. Historical May maxima average near 23°C, so any deviation will hinge on whether afternoon temperatures exceed typical values by 3–4°C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS this evening, along with AEMET verification criteria at the Madrid-Barajas station, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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