Recent observational data show April 2026 global surface temperatures reaching 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels, with ENSO-neutral conditions giving way to a likely El Niño by May–July according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. This transition, driven by rapid Pacific warming and multi-model consensus, sustains elevated anomalies through spring while model spreads introduce modest uncertainty around monthly peaks. Traders appear to weight these factors heavily, concentrating implied probability on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the most consistent outcome with both the ongoing long-term warming trend and the timing of the emerging El Niño signal. Upcoming May data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will provide the next clear test of whether anomalies remain near recent highs or moderate slightly.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Vol.
$58,574 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Vol.
$58,574 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,927 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,783 Vol.
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data show April 2026 global surface temperatures reaching 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels, with ENSO-neutral conditions giving way to a likely El Niño by May–July according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. This transition, driven by rapid Pacific warming and multi-model consensus, sustains elevated anomalies through spring while model spreads introduce modest uncertainty around monthly peaks. Traders appear to weight these factors heavily, concentrating implied probability on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the most consistent outcome with both the ongoing long-term warming trend and the timing of the emerging El Niño signal. Upcoming May data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will provide the next clear test of whether anomalies remain near recent highs or moderate slightly.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$58,574Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data show April 2026 global surface temperatures reaching 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels, with ENSO-neutral conditions giving way to a likely El Niño by May–July according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. This transition, driven by rapid Pacific warming and multi-model consensus, sustains elevated anomalies through spring while model spreads introduce modest uncertainty around monthly peaks. Traders appear to weight these factors heavily, concentrating implied probability on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the most consistent outcome with both the ongoing long-term warming trend and the timing of the emerging El Niño signal. Upcoming May data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will provide the next clear test of whether anomalies remain near recent highs or moderate slightly.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$58,574Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data show April 2026 global surface temperatures reaching 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels, with ENSO-neutral conditions giving way to a likely El Niño by May–July according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. This transition, driven by rapid Pacific warming and multi-model consensus, sustains elevated anomalies through spring while model spreads introduce modest uncertainty around monthly peaks. Traders appear to weight these factors heavily, concentrating implied probability on the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the most consistent outcome with both the ongoing long-term warming trend and the timing of the emerging El Niño signal. Upcoming May data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will provide the next clear test of whether anomalies remain near recent highs or moderate slightly.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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