Recent forecasts from NOAA and the WMO highlight a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño likely beginning in May–July 2026, which supports trader consensus around a 1.10–1.14 °C global mean surface temperature anomaly for May relative to pre-industrial baselines. This positioning reflects the persistent background warming from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, combined with near-average equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures that have not yet produced strong El Niño amplification. Historical analogs from neutral-to-warming transitions show May anomalies typically clustering near 1.1–1.2 °C, while model ensembles indicate limited short-term cooling risks. Upcoming June updates from the Climate Prediction Center will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Vol.
$58,574 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Vol.
$58,574 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,927 Vol.
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,783 Vol.
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent forecasts from NOAA and the WMO highlight a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño likely beginning in May–July 2026, which supports trader consensus around a 1.10–1.14 °C global mean surface temperature anomaly for May relative to pre-industrial baselines. This positioning reflects the persistent background warming from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, combined with near-average equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures that have not yet produced strong El Niño amplification. Historical analogs from neutral-to-warming transitions show May anomalies typically clustering near 1.1–1.2 °C, while model ensembles indicate limited short-term cooling risks. Upcoming June updates from the Climate Prediction Center will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$58,574Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent forecasts from NOAA and the WMO highlight a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño likely beginning in May–July 2026, which supports trader consensus around a 1.10–1.14 °C global mean surface temperature anomaly for May relative to pre-industrial baselines. This positioning reflects the persistent background warming from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, combined with near-average equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures that have not yet produced strong El Niño amplification. Historical analogs from neutral-to-warming transitions show May anomalies typically clustering near 1.1–1.2 °C, while model ensembles indicate limited short-term cooling risks. Upcoming June updates from the Climate Prediction Center will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$58,574Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA and the WMO highlight a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño likely beginning in May–July 2026, which supports trader consensus around a 1.10–1.14 °C global mean surface temperature anomaly for May relative to pre-industrial baselines. This positioning reflects the persistent background warming from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, combined with near-average equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures that have not yet produced strong El Niño amplification. Historical analogs from neutral-to-warming transitions show May anomalies typically clustering near 1.1–1.2 °C, while model ensembles indicate limited short-term cooling risks. Upcoming June updates from the Climate Prediction Center will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong