Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which the Kremlin has framed as a referendum on the Ukraine war effort. United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through managed processes that limit genuine opposition, while administrative preparations for potential mobilization and hybrid operations abroad signal continued focus on external priorities rather than internal fractures. Elite dissatisfaction over war costs and economic pressures exists but remains contained by loyalty mechanisms, surveillance of aides, and the absence of viable organized alternatives following the 2023 Wagner episode. Traders assign only a 5% chance of a coup attempt this year, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and structural barriers to coordinated challenges through year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateRussia coup attempt in 2026?
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
5% tsansa
$132,539 Vol.
$132,539 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% tsansa
$132,539 Vol.
$132,539 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which the Kremlin has framed as a referendum on the Ukraine war effort. United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through managed processes that limit genuine opposition, while administrative preparations for potential mobilization and hybrid operations abroad signal continued focus on external priorities rather than internal fractures. Elite dissatisfaction over war costs and economic pressures exists but remains contained by loyalty mechanisms, surveillance of aides, and the absence of viable organized alternatives following the 2023 Wagner episode. Traders assign only a 5% chance of a coup attempt this year, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and structural barriers to coordinated challenges through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$132,539Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which the Kremlin has framed as a referendum on the Ukraine war effort. United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through managed processes that limit genuine opposition, while administrative preparations for potential mobilization and hybrid operations abroad signal continued focus on external priorities rather than internal fractures. Elite dissatisfaction over war costs and economic pressures exists but remains contained by loyalty mechanisms, surveillance of aides, and the absence of viable organized alternatives following the 2023 Wagner episode. Traders assign only a 5% chance of a coup attempt this year, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and structural barriers to coordinated challenges through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$132,539Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, military command, and political institutions ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which the Kremlin has framed as a referendum on the Ukraine war effort. United Russia is positioned for a decisive victory through managed processes that limit genuine opposition, while administrative preparations for potential mobilization and hybrid operations abroad signal continued focus on external priorities rather than internal fractures. Elite dissatisfaction over war costs and economic pressures exists but remains contained by loyalty mechanisms, surveillance of aides, and the absence of viable organized alternatives following the 2023 Wagner episode. Traders assign only a 5% chance of a coup attempt this year, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and structural barriers to coordinated challenges through year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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