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icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politika·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politika·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

<35 86%

35–44 12.4%

45–54 2.6%

75–84 <1%

Polymarket

$27,356 Vol.

<35 86%

35–44 12.4%

45–54 2.6%

75–84 <1%

Polymarket

$27,356 Vol.

<35

$11,020 Vol.

86%

35–44

$7,295 Vol.

12%

45–54

$1,932 Vol.

3%

55–64

$1,876 Vol.

1%

65–74

$1,544 Vol.

<1%

75–84

$1,701 Vol.

1%

85+

$1,987 Vol.

1%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The Russian State Duma election, scheduled for 18–20 September 2026 under a mixed proportional and single-member system with a 5% threshold, features New People as one of several Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition parties competing for limited space alongside United Russia dominance. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and VTsIOM place the party at roughly 8–11% on the party list, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–16%, consistent with modest gains from its current 15 seats rather than a major breakthrough. Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot offers a minor boost to protest-vote consolidation, yet administrative controls, single-member district allocation patterns, and competition from LDPR and CPRF constrain upside potential. Trader consensus reflected in the heavy weighting toward fewer than 35 total seats aligns with these structural limits and the party’s positioning as a managed vehicle for urban and younger voters without challenging core regime priorities.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$27,356
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The Russian State Duma election, scheduled for 18–20 September 2026 under a mixed proportional and single-member system with a 5% threshold, features New People as one of several Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition parties competing for limited space alongside United Russia dominance. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and VTsIOM place the party at roughly 8–11% on the party list, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–16%, consistent with modest gains from its current 15 seats rather than a major breakthrough. Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot offers a minor boost to protest-vote consolidation, yet administrative controls, single-member district allocation patterns, and competition from LDPR and CPRF constrain upside potential. Trader consensus reflected in the heavy weighting toward fewer than 35 total seats aligns with these structural limits and the party’s positioning as a managed vehicle for urban and younger voters without challenging core regime priorities.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$27,356
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Kaugnay

icon for Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

43%
icon for Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win fewer than 45 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win fewer than 45 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

95%
icon for Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

98%

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Ang "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "<35" sa 86%, sinusundan ng "35–44" sa 12%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 86¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 86% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" ay naka-generate ng $27.4K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Sep 1, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" ay "<35" sa 86%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 86% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "35–44" sa 12%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.