Diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain open but constrained by persistent gaps on uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and verification protocols. U.S. officials have signaled willingness to explore a limited framework if Iran accepts stricter International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, while Iranian statements continue to tie any agreement to full sanctions removal. These positions, combined with regional security developments involving proxy actors, underpin the 59% implied probability that traders assign to a deal materializing before the end of 2026. Historical precedent of protracted talks and the compressed timeline to 2027 introduce notable uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on forthcoming multilateral engagement or policy adjustments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
$1,332,710 Vol.
$1,332,710 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oo
$1,332,710 Vol.
$1,332,710 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain open but constrained by persistent gaps on uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and verification protocols. U.S. officials have signaled willingness to explore a limited framework if Iran accepts stricter International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, while Iranian statements continue to tie any agreement to full sanctions removal. These positions, combined with regional security developments involving proxy actors, underpin the 59% implied probability that traders assign to a deal materializing before the end of 2026. Historical precedent of protracted talks and the compressed timeline to 2027 introduce notable uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on forthcoming multilateral engagement or policy adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$1,332,710Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain open but constrained by persistent gaps on uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and verification protocols. U.S. officials have signaled willingness to explore a limited framework if Iran accepts stricter International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, while Iranian statements continue to tie any agreement to full sanctions removal. These positions, combined with regional security developments involving proxy actors, underpin the 59% implied probability that traders assign to a deal materializing before the end of 2026. Historical precedent of protracted talks and the compressed timeline to 2027 introduce notable uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on forthcoming multilateral engagement or policy adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,332,710Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain open but constrained by persistent gaps on uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and verification protocols. U.S. officials have signaled willingness to explore a limited framework if Iran accepts stricter International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, while Iranian statements continue to tie any agreement to full sanctions removal. These positions, combined with regional security developments involving proxy actors, underpin the 59% implied probability that traders assign to a deal materializing before the end of 2026. Historical precedent of protracted talks and the compressed timeline to 2027 introduce notable uncertainty that could shift outcomes depending on forthcoming multilateral engagement or policy adjustments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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