Argentina’s July 2026 monthly CPI rose 2.1 percent, landing squarely inside the 2.1-2.3 percent range that commands 99.5 percent implied probability on Polymarket. The print follows June’s 1.9 percent pace and aligns closely with consensus estimates from the BCRA’s REM survey and private forecasters, reflecting sustained disinflation amid tighter monetary conditions and peso stability. Traders have priced the outcome with high conviction because official INDEC data, released around August 13, matched the expected trajectory without material surprises in key components such as food, transport, or regulated prices. A late revision by the statistics agency or an unexpected methodological adjustment remains the principal, albeit low-probability, risk that could still shift resolution.