Arizona's 6th congressional district remains one of the nation's most competitive House seats, with recent polling averages and fundraising reports showing Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani ahead of the July primaries. National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic edge in generic ballot surveys, have reinforced trader views that the seat leans toward Democrats in November despite its swing-district history and close 2024 results. Early-cycle indicators such as Mendoza's quarterly fundraising advantage and targeted voter outreach in suburban areas have further supported the current implied probabilities, though the race's ultimate outcome will hinge on primary results, turnout patterns, and any shifts in the broader electoral environment before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAZ-06 House Election Winner
AZ-06 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
76%
Republican Party
24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$493 Обс.
76%
Republican Party
$1,199 Обс.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 6th congressional district remains one of the nation's most competitive House seats, with recent polling averages and fundraising reports showing Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani ahead of the July primaries. National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic edge in generic ballot surveys, have reinforced trader views that the seat leans toward Democrats in November despite its swing-district history and close 2024 results. Early-cycle indicators such as Mendoza's quarterly fundraising advantage and targeted voter outreach in suburban areas have further supported the current implied probabilities, though the race's ultimate outcome will hinge on primary results, turnout patterns, and any shifts in the broader electoral environment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,692Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 6th congressional district remains one of the nation's most competitive House seats, with recent polling averages and fundraising reports showing Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani ahead of the July primaries. National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic edge in generic ballot surveys, have reinforced trader views that the seat leans toward Democrats in November despite its swing-district history and close 2024 results. Early-cycle indicators such as Mendoza's quarterly fundraising advantage and targeted voter outreach in suburban areas have further supported the current implied probabilities, though the race's ultimate outcome will hinge on primary results, turnout patterns, and any shifts in the broader electoral environment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$1,692Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 6th congressional district remains one of the nation's most competitive House seats, with recent polling averages and fundraising reports showing Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani ahead of the July primaries. National midterm dynamics, including a Democratic edge in generic ballot surveys, have reinforced trader views that the seat leans toward Democrats in November despite its swing-district history and close 2024 results. Early-cycle indicators such as Mendoza's quarterly fundraising advantage and targeted voter outreach in suburban areas have further supported the current implied probabilities, though the race's ultimate outcome will hinge on primary results, turnout patterns, and any shifts in the broader electoral environment before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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