Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race favors Democrats at 75.5% implied probability, driven by recent polls showing frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 3 points (47%-44%) in a March Ragnar Research survey released late April, corroborated by other surveys averaging a 1-point Democratic edge. Mendoza, a Marine veteran with dominant fundraising ($5.3 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand through March), bolsters her position ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she leads a contested Democratic field while Ciscomani faces no GOP challengers. This evenly divided battleground (R+0 PVI, Cook Toss-up) has seen narrow Republican holds in recent cycles, but swing voter shifts and midterm dynamics have elevated Democratic prospects despite uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAZ-06 House Election Winner
AZ-06 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
75%
Republican Party
24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$470 Обс.
75%
Republican Party
$922 Обс.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race favors Democrats at 75.5% implied probability, driven by recent polls showing frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 3 points (47%-44%) in a March Ragnar Research survey released late April, corroborated by other surveys averaging a 1-point Democratic edge. Mendoza, a Marine veteran with dominant fundraising ($5.3 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand through March), bolsters her position ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she leads a contested Democratic field while Ciscomani faces no GOP challengers. This evenly divided battleground (R+0 PVI, Cook Toss-up) has seen narrow Republican holds in recent cycles, but swing voter shifts and midterm dynamics have elevated Democratic prospects despite uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,391Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race favors Democrats at 75.5% implied probability, driven by recent polls showing frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 3 points (47%-44%) in a March Ragnar Research survey released late April, corroborated by other surveys averaging a 1-point Democratic edge. Mendoza, a Marine veteran with dominant fundraising ($5.3 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand through March), bolsters her position ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she leads a contested Democratic field while Ciscomani faces no GOP challengers. This evenly divided battleground (R+0 PVI, Cook Toss-up) has seen narrow Republican holds in recent cycles, but swing voter shifts and midterm dynamics have elevated Democratic prospects despite uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$1,391Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race favors Democrats at 75.5% implied probability, driven by recent polls showing frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 3 points (47%-44%) in a March Ragnar Research survey released late April, corroborated by other surveys averaging a 1-point Democratic edge. Mendoza, a Marine veteran with dominant fundraising ($5.3 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand through March), bolsters her position ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she leads a contested Democratic field while Ciscomani faces no GOP challengers. This evenly divided battleground (R+0 PVI, Cook Toss-up) has seen narrow Republican holds in recent cycles, but swing voter shifts and midterm dynamics have elevated Democratic prospects despite uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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