Ryan Fazio secured overwhelming delegate support at the May 2026 Republican state convention, capturing more than 90 percent of the vote after former New Britain mayor Erin Stewart withdrew amid spending controversies. This outcome followed Stewart's earlier polling lead and left only limited opposition from candidates such as Betsy McCaughey and Timothy Wilcox, none of whom reached the threshold for an automatic primary challenge. Party unification behind the Greenwich state senator has produced the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. A realistic shift would require either an unforeseen late filing that qualifies for the August primary ballot or a sudden reversal in delegate commitments before formal certification, though both remain low-probability developments given the convention results.