The reported May 2026 Justice Department inquiry into potential perjury by E. Jean Carroll, tied to her 2022 deposition statements on outside funding for her civil lawsuits against President Trump, remains the central driver of trader assessments. Anonymous sources initially described scrutiny of her testimony regarding support from Reid Hoffman’s nonprofit, though the Chicago U.S. Attorney promptly denied any criminal investigation targeting Carroll herself and indicated any related review focused elsewhere. No federal charges or indictment have been announced since those reports, and the Supreme Court’s June 2026 rejection of Trump’s appeals in the underlying cases produced no new enforcement developments. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, market pricing reflects the procedural hurdles to indictment, the disputed scope of the probe, and the absence of subsequent official actions confirming advancement.