Recent soft inflation prints, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Following unanimous pauses at the June and July meetings—the latter featuring a 9-3 split with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor continued restraint as policymakers monitor evolving data on inflation persistence above the 2% target and labor market resilience. This pause–pause–pause consensus aligns with the Fed’s data-dependent stance amid mixed signals, though upcoming CPI releases and the September dot plot remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment toward tightening if price pressures reaccelerate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$744,226 Обс.
$744,226 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
24%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$744,226 Обс.
$744,226 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,924 Обс.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$77,151 Обс.
<1%
Other
$320,274 Обс.
24%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent soft inflation prints, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Following unanimous pauses at the June and July meetings—the latter featuring a 9-3 split with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor continued restraint as policymakers monitor evolving data on inflation persistence above the 2% target and labor market resilience. This pause–pause–pause consensus aligns with the Fed’s data-dependent stance amid mixed signals, though upcoming CPI releases and the September dot plot remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment toward tightening if price pressures reaccelerate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$744,226Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent soft inflation prints, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Following unanimous pauses at the June and July meetings—the latter featuring a 9-3 split with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor continued restraint as policymakers monitor evolving data on inflation persistence above the 2% target and labor market resilience. This pause–pause–pause consensus aligns with the Fed’s data-dependent stance amid mixed signals, though upcoming CPI releases and the September dot plot remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment toward tightening if price pressures reaccelerate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$744,226Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent soft inflation prints, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Following unanimous pauses at the June and July meetings—the latter featuring a 9-3 split with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—market-implied odds heavily favor continued restraint as policymakers monitor evolving data on inflation persistence above the 2% target and labor market resilience. This pause–pause–pause consensus aligns with the Fed’s data-dependent stance amid mixed signals, though upcoming CPI releases and the September dot plot remain key swing factors that could shift sentiment toward tightening if price pressures reaccelerate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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