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Економ·Економічна політика

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Економ·Економічна політика

GDP growth in 2026

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

>2.5% 43%

2.0–2.5% 34%

1.5–2.0% 30.9%

0.5–1.0% 12.3%

Polymarket

$28,322 Обс.

>2.5% 43%

2.0–2.5% 34%

1.5–2.0% 30.9%

0.5–1.0% 12.3%

Polymarket

$28,322 Обс.

<0.5%

$3,911 Обс.

10%

0.5–1.0%

$15,332 Обс.

12%

1.0–1.5%

$1,562 Обс.

12%

1.5–2.0%

$1,536 Обс.

31%

2.0–2.5%

$1,894 Обс.

34%

>2.5%

$4,088 Обс.

43%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments are anchoring trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent rebound following the late-2025 government shutdown, with business investment in AI-related equipment providing key support. Consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO and Goldman Sachs cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from tax provisions offset by tariff pressures and a cooling labor market. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking currently signals stronger second-quarter momentum near 4.0 percent annualized, though market-implied probabilities remain closely split across the 2.0–2.5 percent and above-2.5 percent brackets as traders weigh incoming inflation prints and upcoming FOMC communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$28,322
Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments are anchoring trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent rebound following the late-2025 government shutdown, with business investment in AI-related equipment providing key support. Consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO and Goldman Sachs cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from tax provisions offset by tariff pressures and a cooling labor market. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking currently signals stronger second-quarter momentum near 4.0 percent annualized, though market-implied probabilities remain closely split across the 2.0–2.5 percent and above-2.5 percent brackets as traders weigh incoming inflation prints and upcoming FOMC communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$28,322
Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«GDP growth in 2026» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «>2.5%» з 43%, далі «2.0–2.5%» з 34%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «GDP growth in 2026» згенерував $28.3K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 12, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «GDP growth in 2026», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «GDP growth in 2026» — «>2.5%» з 43%. Наступний — «2.0–2.5%» з 34%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «GDP growth in 2026» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.