Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below prior estimates, alongside Philadelphia Fed forecasters trimming their 2026 annual average projection to 2.2%, has anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges. Mixed components—accelerating consumer spending offset by weaker investment, net trade drags, and uneven labor market signals—create balanced risks between moderate expansion and slight underperformance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over monetary policy paths, tariff effects, and fiscal carryovers from 2025, with upcoming data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift probabilities between these bins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 31%
1.5–2.0% 30.0%
>2.5% 20%
1.0–1.5% 9.0%
$58,175 Обс.
$58,175 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
7%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
30%
2.0–2.5%
31%
>2.5%
20%
2.0–2.5% 31%
1.5–2.0% 30.0%
>2.5% 20%
1.0–1.5% 9.0%
$58,175 Обс.
$58,175 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,449 Обс.
7%
0.5–1.0%
$17,234 Обс.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,824 Обс.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$6,632 Обс.
30%
2.0–2.5%
$7,095 Обс.
31%
>2.5%
$15,941 Обс.
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below prior estimates, alongside Philadelphia Fed forecasters trimming their 2026 annual average projection to 2.2%, has anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges. Mixed components—accelerating consumer spending offset by weaker investment, net trade drags, and uneven labor market signals—create balanced risks between moderate expansion and slight underperformance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over monetary policy paths, tariff effects, and fiscal carryovers from 2025, with upcoming data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift probabilities between these bins.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$58,175Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below prior estimates, alongside Philadelphia Fed forecasters trimming their 2026 annual average projection to 2.2%, has anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges. Mixed components—accelerating consumer spending offset by weaker investment, net trade drags, and uneven labor market signals—create balanced risks between moderate expansion and slight underperformance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over monetary policy paths, tariff effects, and fiscal carryovers from 2025, with upcoming data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift probabilities between these bins.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$58,175Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below prior estimates, alongside Philadelphia Fed forecasters trimming their 2026 annual average projection to 2.2%, has anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges. Mixed components—accelerating consumer spending offset by weaker investment, net trade drags, and uneven labor market signals—create balanced risks between moderate expansion and slight underperformance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over monetary policy paths, tariff effects, and fiscal carryovers from 2025, with upcoming data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift probabilities between these bins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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