Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies monitoring the Sichuan Basin indicate a likely daily maximum near 30–31°C for Chengdu on May 17, driven by seasonal late-spring warming and light winds under moderate humidity. These conditions align with climatological trends where May highs in the region typically climb from 26°C early in the month toward 30–32°C by late May, supported by basin topography that moderates extremes. Trader consensus has shifted toward the 30°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability and 31°C at 37.3%, reflecting convergence in model runs rather than outlier scenarios. Official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the exact peak, with minor adjustments possible from localized urban heat effects or timing of cloud cover.