Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models converge on a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, driving the tightly clustered market-implied odds across the 30–32°C outcomes. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin supports mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow that favors daytime heating above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C, while lingering boundary-layer moisture introduces minor model spread and keeps probabilities for 33°C or higher negligible. Traders are monitoring the final afternoon observation window and any last adjustments to steering patterns before official resolution at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport.