Recent forecast model runs from regional meteorological centers indicate Chongqing’s May 18 peak temperature will likely settle in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, driven by persistent basin humidity and limited insolation under moderate subtropical high pressure. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where trapped moisture and frequent cloud cover typically suppress daytime heating by 2–4 °C relative to clearer conditions. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered among 23–25 °C outcomes, traders are weighing small differences in wind speed, cloud thickness, and exact timing of any late-day clearing that could nudge the daily maximum by one degree. Official observations will resolve the market once final data are confirmed.