Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a transient upper-level trough and northerly flow moderating temperatures across north Texas, keeping the June 15 Dallas maximum most likely in the low-to-mid 80s rather than the seasonal 91–94 °F climatology. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF show 80–83 °F as the tightest cluster because small differences in frontal timing or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2 °F, which explains the near-even trader-implied probabilities of 30.5 % for 80–81 °F and 29.0 % for 82–83 °F. Clear skies and light winds are expected to limit afternoon heating, while dew-point trends and observed 500-hPa heights support the lower range without indicating a stronger cool-air intrusion that would drop readings into the 70s.