Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 36–38 °C on August 6 under a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface heating. Madrid’s continental climate and urban heat-island effect amplify these conditions relative to coastal areas, while climatological norms for early August already place typical maxima near 34 °C. The absence of incoming Atlantic fronts or significant cloud cover in the latest model runs keeps the distribution tightly centered on 37 °C (market-implied 56.5 %) and 38 °C (39.5 %), with only slim odds assigned to 39 °C or cooler outcomes. Updated guidance expected later today could refine the precise peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 6?
37°C 57%
38°C 40%
39°C 4%
36°C 3%
НОВЕ
$21,585 Обс.
НОВЕ
$21,585 Обс.
Aug 6, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
3%
37°C
57%
38°C
40%
39°C
4%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 57%
38°C 40%
39°C 4%
36°C 3%
НОВЕ
$21,585 Обс.
НОВЕ
$21,585 Обс.
Aug 6, 2026
33°C or below
$661 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$2,047 Обс.
1%
35°C
$2,245 Обс.
<1%
36°C
$4,777 Обс.
3%
37°C
$3,735 Обс.
57%
38°C
$3,584 Обс.
40%
39°C
$2,165 Обс.
4%
40°C
$1,051 Обс.
<1%
41°C
$582 Обс.
<1%
42°C
$292 Обс.
<1%
43°C or higher
$448 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 36–38 °C on August 6 under a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface heating. Madrid’s continental climate and urban heat-island effect amplify these conditions relative to coastal areas, while climatological norms for early August already place typical maxima near 34 °C. The absence of incoming Atlantic fronts or significant cloud cover in the latest model runs keeps the distribution tightly centered on 37 °C (market-implied 56.5 %) and 38 °C (39.5 %), with only slim odds assigned to 39 °C or cooler outcomes. Updated guidance expected later today could refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$21,585Дата завершення
Aug 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 36–38 °C on August 6 under a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface heating. Madrid’s continental climate and urban heat-island effect amplify these conditions relative to coastal areas, while climatological norms for early August already place typical maxima near 34 °C. The absence of incoming Atlantic fronts or significant cloud cover in the latest model runs keeps the distribution tightly centered on 37 °C (market-implied 56.5 %) and 38 °C (39.5 %), with only slim odds assigned to 39 °C or cooler outcomes. Updated guidance expected later today could refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$21,585Дата завершення
Aug 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 36–38 °C on August 6 under a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface heating. Madrid’s continental climate and urban heat-island effect amplify these conditions relative to coastal areas, while climatological norms for early August already place typical maxima near 34 °C. The absence of incoming Atlantic fronts or significant cloud cover in the latest model runs keeps the distribution tightly centered on 37 °C (market-implied 56.5 %) and 38 °C (39.5 %), with only slim odds assigned to 39 °C or cooler outcomes. Updated guidance expected later today could refine the precise peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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