Forecast models from regional meteorological agencies indicate a daily maximum near 32–33°C in Shenzhen on August 5, driving the near-even split between those outcomes amid typical subtropical summer conditions. High humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover limit afternoon radiative heating while urban heat-island effects in the Pearl River Delta sustain baseline warmth; sea-breeze influences from the South China Sea can cap peaks if convection develops. Recent patterns show stable high-pressure ridging without strong typhoon steering or cold-air intrusions, keeping extremes unlikely. Official resolution will hinge on the China Meteorological Administration station reading, where small shifts in timing of any showers or insolation could differentiate the top two bins.