**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) currently position a 30°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 59.5% implied probability.** JMA’s latest bulletin, issued midday on August 5, projects a clear-to-cloudy day with a high of 30°C—below the long-term normal of 31.8°C—while yesterday’s verified peak reached only 29°C. This consensus is reinforced by typical early-August climatology, where highs cluster around 30–32°C amid the influence of the Pacific High and urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C locally but rarely push the official station reading far outside forecast bounds. Model agreement remains tight, with limited upside risk from unexpected insolation or southerly flow, keeping the 31°C bucket at 28% and higher outcomes below 6% combined. Traders are therefore pricing in the latest observational data and JMA guidance, which together favor the narrow 30–31°C window over broader seasonal extremes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
30°C 60%
31°C 45%
32°C 5%
33°C <1%
$67,522 Обс.
$67,522 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
60%
31°C
38%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 60%
31°C 45%
32°C 5%
33°C <1%
$67,522 Обс.
$67,522 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
25°C or below
$744 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$2,032 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$4,187 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$7,665 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$20,554 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$8,319 Обс.
60%
31°C
$4,704 Обс.
38%
32°C
$4,940 Обс.
5%
33°C
$5,145 Обс.
1%
34°C
$4,772 Обс.
<1%
35°C or higher
$5,542 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) currently position a 30°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 59.5% implied probability.** JMA’s latest bulletin, issued midday on August 5, projects a clear-to-cloudy day with a high of 30°C—below the long-term normal of 31.8°C—while yesterday’s verified peak reached only 29°C.
This consensus is reinforced by typical early-August climatology, where highs cluster around 30–32°C amid the influence of the Pacific High and urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C locally but rarely push the official station reading far outside forecast bounds. Model agreement remains tight, with limited upside risk from unexpected insolation or southerly flow, keeping the 31°C bucket at 28% and higher outcomes below 6% combined. Traders are therefore pricing in the latest observational data and JMA guidance, which together favor the narrow 30–31°C window over broader seasonal extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$67,522Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) currently position a 30°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 59.5% implied probability.** JMA’s latest bulletin, issued midday on August 5, projects a clear-to-cloudy day with a high of 30°C—below the long-term normal of 31.8°C—while yesterday’s verified peak reached only 29°C.
This consensus is reinforced by typical early-August climatology, where highs cluster around 30–32°C amid the influence of the Pacific High and urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C locally but rarely push the official station reading far outside forecast bounds. Model agreement remains tight, with limited upside risk from unexpected insolation or southerly flow, keeping the 31°C bucket at 28% and higher outcomes below 6% combined. Traders are therefore pricing in the latest observational data and JMA guidance, which together favor the narrow 30–31°C window over broader seasonal extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$67,522Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) currently position a 30°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 59.5% implied probability.** JMA’s latest bulletin, issued midday on August 5, projects a clear-to-cloudy day with a high of 30°C—below the long-term normal of 31.8°C—while yesterday’s verified peak reached only 29°C. This consensus is reinforced by typical early-August climatology, where highs cluster around 30–32°C amid the influence of the Pacific High and urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C locally but rarely push the official station reading far outside forecast bounds. Model agreement remains tight, with limited upside risk from unexpected insolation or southerly flow, keeping the 31°C bucket at 28% and higher outcomes below 6% combined. Traders are therefore pricing in the latest observational data and JMA guidance, which together favor the narrow 30–31°C window over broader seasonal extremes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання