The market's 97.9% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature in Milan on May 17 reflects the tight consensus among numerical weather prediction models and current observational data from the Po Valley region. Mid-May climatological averages for Milan place daily maxima near 21°C under typical spring anticyclonic conditions, with limited variability from recent stable atmospheric patterns. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around this value, consistent with low wind speeds and moderate solar insolation expected through the afternoon. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted warm advection event or localized urban heat effects that briefly exceed model guidance, though such shifts remain low-probability given the latest model runs and measurement cutoff.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Milan on May 17?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 17?
21°C 99.4%
22°C <1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
$37,762 Обс.
$37,762 Обс.
May 17, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
99%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.4%
22°C <1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
$37,762 Обс.
$37,762 Обс.
May 17, 2026
15°C or below
$1,415 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$482 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$1,526 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$2,575 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$6,467 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$7,383 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$5,108 Обс.
99%
22°C
$5,348 Обс.
1%
23°C
$4,319 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$2,788 Обс.
1%
25°C or higher
$1,974 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's 97.9% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature in Milan on May 17 reflects the tight consensus among numerical weather prediction models and current observational data from the Po Valley region. Mid-May climatological averages for Milan place daily maxima near 21°C under typical spring anticyclonic conditions, with limited variability from recent stable atmospheric patterns. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around this value, consistent with low wind speeds and moderate solar insolation expected through the afternoon. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted warm advection event or localized urban heat effects that briefly exceed model guidance, though such shifts remain low-probability given the latest model runs and measurement cutoff.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$37,762Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's 97.9% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature in Milan on May 17 reflects the tight consensus among numerical weather prediction models and current observational data from the Po Valley region. Mid-May climatological averages for Milan place daily maxima near 21°C under typical spring anticyclonic conditions, with limited variability from recent stable atmospheric patterns. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around this value, consistent with low wind speeds and moderate solar insolation expected through the afternoon. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted warm advection event or localized urban heat effects that briefly exceed model guidance, though such shifts remain low-probability given the latest model runs and measurement cutoff.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$37,762Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCThe market's 97.9% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature in Milan on May 17 reflects the tight consensus among numerical weather prediction models and current observational data from the Po Valley region. Mid-May climatological averages for Milan place daily maxima near 21°C under typical spring anticyclonic conditions, with limited variability from recent stable atmospheric patterns. Ensemble forecasts show minimal spread around this value, consistent with low wind speeds and moderate solar insolation expected through the afternoon. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted warm advection event or localized urban heat effects that briefly exceed model guidance, though such shifts remain low-probability given the latest model runs and measurement cutoff.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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