Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a daytime high of 86–88°F in New York City today under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, anchoring trader consensus near the 86–89°F range. Warm-air advection ahead of a slow-moving ridge has lifted temperatures 8–10°F above seasonal normals, while limited afternoon mixing and modest cloud cover are capping the upper end of the distribution. Historical May extremes for Central Park average 78°F, but recent clear nights and building surface heating have shifted probabilities toward the mid-to-upper 80s; any unexpected increase in insolation or delayed sea-breeze onset could push readings into the low 90s before official observation closes at midnight.