National Weather Service model consensus and observational data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have converged on a daily high of 58–59 °F for May 16, underpinning the market’s near-certain pricing for that outcome. This reflects typical late-spring marine influence along the Pacific Northwest coast, where onshore flow and cloud cover often cap temperatures well below seasonal averages around 67 °F. Official forecasts showed minimal deviation across ensemble runs, with no significant warm-air advection or clear-sky development to push readings higher. A sudden shift in the sea-breeze front or under-forecasted solar heating could still alter final readings, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent guidance.