Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,696 Обс.
$49,696 Обс.
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,696 Обс.
$49,696 Обс.
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
$660 Обс.
<1%
6°C
$979 Обс.
<1%
7°C
$435 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$683 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$1,131 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$4,426 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$10,585 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$4,844 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$9,782 Обс.
100%
14°C
$8,088 Обс.
<1%
15°C or higher
$8,084 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$49,696Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$49,696Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWALatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System have converged on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Warsaw, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 99.7% implied probability for that outcome. This alignment reflects stable atmospheric conditions with modest southerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge, keeping temperatures close to the climatological average for mid-May. Official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport and surrounding stations continue to support this range, with minimal model spread reducing uncertainty. A sudden shift in steering winds or an unforecasted cold pool could still push readings to 14°C or hold them at 12°C, though such deviations remain low-probability given current guidance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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