The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$46,392 Обс.
$46,392 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$46,392 Обс.
$46,392 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$31,938 Обс.
96%
Republican Party
$14,454 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$46,392Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$46,392Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district’s solidly Democratic character, confirmed by nonpartisan ratings such as the Cook Political Report’s Solid D designation, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García withdrew following the filing deadline, while Republican Lupe Castillo advanced without primary opposition. Historical margins exceeding 60 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, combined with the district’s demographic and geographic profile centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs, reinforce the current pricing. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national political shift or significant local developments within the next several months to overcome these structural advantages.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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