Amir Ohana leads the Likud primary for Knesset list positions after Netanyahu at 81.5% implied probability due to consistent first-place finishes in recent polls of registered party members, including surveys showing him ahead of Tally Gotliv and others by wide margins among loyal voters. Netanyahu secured eight reserved slots in the top 30 via Central Committee approval, yet the primary scheduled for August 17 proceeds following internal court rulings that preserved member voting. This structure favors established figures like Ohana, the Knesset Speaker, who benefit from base support over ministers such as Yariv Levin or Eli Cohen. Low odds for alternatives and a slim chance of no primary reflect trader assessment of member turnout dynamics and the limited window before the October 27 national election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAmir Ohana 81%
Tally Gotliv 13.5%
Yariv Levin 7.0%
No Primary by Knesset Election 2.7%
$59,849 Обс.
$59,849 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
81%
Tally Gotliv
13%
Yariv Levin
7%
No Primary by Knesset Election
3%
Boaz Bismuth
1%
Eli Cohen
1%
Shlomo Karhi
1%
Moshe Saada
1%
David Amsalem
1%
Almog Cohen
1%
Amichai Chikli
1%
Israel Katz
<1%
Miri Regev
<1%
Nir Barkat
<1%
Yoav Kisch
<1%
Miki Zohar
<1%
David Bitan
<1%
Amir Ohana 81%
Tally Gotliv 13.5%
Yariv Levin 7.0%
No Primary by Knesset Election 2.7%
$59,849 Обс.
$59,849 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
$19,242 Обс.
81%
Tally Gotliv
$12,439 Обс.
13%
Yariv Levin
$3,867 Обс.
7%
No Primary by Knesset Election
$9,704 Обс.
3%
Boaz Bismuth
$1,281 Обс.
1%
Eli Cohen
$1,435 Обс.
1%
Shlomo Karhi
$1,010 Обс.
1%
Moshe Saada
$876 Обс.
1%
David Amsalem
$826 Обс.
1%
Almog Cohen
$903 Обс.
1%
Amichai Chikli
$904 Обс.
1%
Israel Katz
$2,239 Обс.
<1%
Miri Regev
$650 Обс.
<1%
Nir Barkat
$2,174 Обс.
<1%
Yoav Kisch
$835 Обс.
<1%
Miki Zohar
$667 Обс.
<1%
David Bitan
$800 Обс.
<1%
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads the Likud primary for Knesset list positions after Netanyahu at 81.5% implied probability due to consistent first-place finishes in recent polls of registered party members, including surveys showing him ahead of Tally Gotliv and others by wide margins among loyal voters. Netanyahu secured eight reserved slots in the top 30 via Central Committee approval, yet the primary scheduled for August 17 proceeds following internal court rulings that preserved member voting. This structure favors established figures like Ohana, the Knesset Speaker, who benefit from base support over ministers such as Yariv Levin or Eli Cohen. Low odds for alternatives and a slim chance of no primary reflect trader assessment of member turnout dynamics and the limited window before the October 27 national election.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Обсяг
$59,849Дата завершення
Oct 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads the Likud primary for Knesset list positions after Netanyahu at 81.5% implied probability due to consistent first-place finishes in recent polls of registered party members, including surveys showing him ahead of Tally Gotliv and others by wide margins among loyal voters. Netanyahu secured eight reserved slots in the top 30 via Central Committee approval, yet the primary scheduled for August 17 proceeds following internal court rulings that preserved member voting. This structure favors established figures like Ohana, the Knesset Speaker, who benefit from base support over ministers such as Yariv Levin or Eli Cohen. Low odds for alternatives and a slim chance of no primary reflect trader assessment of member turnout dynamics and the limited window before the October 27 national election.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Обсяг
$59,849Дата завершення
Oct 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amir Ohana leads the Likud primary for Knesset list positions after Netanyahu at 81.5% implied probability due to consistent first-place finishes in recent polls of registered party members, including surveys showing him ahead of Tally Gotliv and others by wide margins among loyal voters. Netanyahu secured eight reserved slots in the top 30 via Central Committee approval, yet the primary scheduled for August 17 proceeds following internal court rulings that preserved member voting. This structure favors established figures like Ohana, the Knesset Speaker, who benefit from base support over ministers such as Yariv Levin or Eli Cohen. Low odds for alternatives and a slim chance of no primary reflect trader assessment of member turnout dynamics and the limited window before the October 27 national election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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