Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 16 of 12–13 °C, with clearing skies and moderate westerly winds promoting limited radiational cooling overnight. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 38 % and 35 % implied probability. A fresher Atlantic air mass following Tuesday’s milder conditions is keeping values near the long-term September average low of 11.6 °C at Heathrow, while daytime maxima around 19 °C limit afternoon heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between official forecasts and potential model revisions on wind or cloud timing ahead of the 48-hour window, with lower-probability tails (10 °C or below) reflecting only modest downside risk from stronger cooling under clear, calm conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in London on September 16?
Lowest temperature in London on September 16?
13°C 38%
12°C 35%
14°C 33%
10°C 32%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
8°C or below
3%
9°C
4%
10°C
32%
11°C
32%
12°C
35%
13°C
38%
14°C
33%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
2%
13°C 38%
12°C 35%
14°C 33%
10°C 32%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Обс.
3%
9°C
$0 Обс.
4%
10°C
$0 Обс.
32%
11°C
$0 Обс.
32%
12°C
$8 Обс.
35%
13°C
$67 Обс.
38%
14°C
$0 Обс.
33%
15°C
$0 Обс.
3%
16°C
$0 Обс.
2%
17°C
$0 Обс.
2%
18°C or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 16 of 12–13 °C, with clearing skies and moderate westerly winds promoting limited radiational cooling overnight. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 38 % and 35 % implied probability. A fresher Atlantic air mass following Tuesday’s milder conditions is keeping values near the long-term September average low of 11.6 °C at Heathrow, while daytime maxima around 19 °C limit afternoon heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between official forecasts and potential model revisions on wind or cloud timing ahead of the 48-hour window, with lower-probability tails (10 °C or below) reflecting only modest downside risk from stronger cooling under clear, calm conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$75Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 16 of 12–13 °C, with clearing skies and moderate westerly winds promoting limited radiational cooling overnight. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 38 % and 35 % implied probability. A fresher Atlantic air mass following Tuesday’s milder conditions is keeping values near the long-term September average low of 11.6 °C at Heathrow, while daytime maxima around 19 °C limit afternoon heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between official forecasts and potential model revisions on wind or cloud timing ahead of the 48-hour window, with lower-probability tails (10 °C or below) reflecting only modest downside risk from stronger cooling under clear, calm conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$75Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 16 of 12–13 °C, with clearing skies and moderate westerly winds promoting limited radiational cooling overnight. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 38 % and 35 % implied probability. A fresher Atlantic air mass following Tuesday’s milder conditions is keeping values near the long-term September average low of 11.6 °C at Heathrow, while daytime maxima around 19 °C limit afternoon heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between official forecasts and potential model revisions on wind or cloud timing ahead of the 48-hour window, with lower-probability tails (10 °C or below) reflecting only modest downside risk from stronger cooling under clear, calm conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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