Recent ensemble model runs from sources including the ECMWF and GFS highlight radiational cooling under clearing skies and light winds as the main driver positioning the 8°C-or-below bin at 46% implied probability for Warsaw's August 23 minimum. Overnight lows are currently projected near 11–14°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August minima reach about 13°C, yet spread across members allows for sharper drops if boundary-layer moisture stays low. Traders weigh this uncertainty against stabilizing high pressure, with upcoming 48-hour guidance and surface observations likely to narrow the range before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
8°C or below 45%
16°C 40%
18°C or higher 38%
12°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
45%
9°C
5%
10°C
21%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
21%
16°C
40%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
38%
8°C or below 45%
16°C 40%
18°C or higher 38%
12°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Обс.
45%
9°C
$0 Обс.
5%
10°C
$0 Обс.
21%
11°C
$0 Обс.
27%
12°C
$0 Обс.
27%
13°C
$0 Обс.
27%
14°C
$0 Обс.
26%
15°C
$0 Обс.
21%
16°C
$5 Обс.
40%
17°C
$5 Обс.
8%
18°C or higher
$5 Обс.
38%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from sources including the ECMWF and GFS highlight radiational cooling under clearing skies and light winds as the main driver positioning the 8°C-or-below bin at 46% implied probability for Warsaw's August 23 minimum. Overnight lows are currently projected near 11–14°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August minima reach about 13°C, yet spread across members allows for sharper drops if boundary-layer moisture stays low. Traders weigh this uncertainty against stabilizing high pressure, with upcoming 48-hour guidance and surface observations likely to narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$15Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from sources including the ECMWF and GFS highlight radiational cooling under clearing skies and light winds as the main driver positioning the 8°C-or-below bin at 46% implied probability for Warsaw's August 23 minimum. Overnight lows are currently projected near 11–14°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August minima reach about 13°C, yet spread across members allows for sharper drops if boundary-layer moisture stays low. Traders weigh this uncertainty against stabilizing high pressure, with upcoming 48-hour guidance and surface observations likely to narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$15Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble model runs from sources including the ECMWF and GFS highlight radiational cooling under clearing skies and light winds as the main driver positioning the 8°C-or-below bin at 46% implied probability for Warsaw's August 23 minimum. Overnight lows are currently projected near 11–14°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August minima reach about 13°C, yet spread across members allows for sharper drops if boundary-layer moisture stays low. Traders weigh this uncertainty against stabilizing high pressure, with upcoming 48-hour guidance and surface observations likely to narrow the range before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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