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icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Jun 10

Jun 10

1.10–1.14ºC 60%

1.15–1.19ºC 16%

<1.10ºC 16%

1.20–1.24ºC 7%

Polymarket

$58,978 Обс.

1.10–1.14ºC 60%

1.15–1.19ºC 16%

<1.10ºC 16%

1.20–1.24ºC 7%

Polymarket

$58,978 Обс.

<1.10ºC

$24,002 Обс.

16%

1.10–1.14ºC

$5,389 Обс.

60%

1.15–1.19ºC

$8,833 Обс.

16%

1.20–1.24ºC

$6,460 Обс.

7%

1.25–1.29ºC

$6,539 Обс.

3%

>1.29ºC

$7,755 Обс.

1%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders are favoring the 1.10–1.14ºC outcome for May 2026 global temperature increase, driven by preliminary observational data from NOAA and NASA showing anomalies tracking within this range amid neutral ENSO conditions after the recent El Niño period. These factors have moderated warming relative to 2023–2025 peaks, consistent with historical May baselines around 1.0–1.2ºC above pre-industrial levels from surface and satellite records. Official monitoring of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric indices continues to support this positioning, though model spreads in regional variability introduce some uncertainty. Final agency compilations expected in June will provide key updates for resolution.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$58,978
Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders are favoring the 1.10–1.14ºC outcome for May 2026 global temperature increase, driven by preliminary observational data from NOAA and NASA showing anomalies tracking within this range amid neutral ENSO conditions after the recent El Niño period. These factors have moderated warming relative to 2023–2025 peaks, consistent with historical May baselines around 1.0–1.2ºC above pre-industrial levels from surface and satellite records. Official monitoring of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric indices continues to support this positioning, though model spreads in regional variability introduce some uncertainty. Final agency compilations expected in June will provide key updates for resolution.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$58,978
Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1.10–1.14ºC» з 60%, далі «<1.10ºC» з 16%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» згенерував $59K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 27, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» — «1.10–1.14ºC» з 60%. Наступний — «<1.10ºC» з 16%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.