Recent polling from mid-May 2026 shows incumbent Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow holding a commanding lead among decided voters, with support around 50 percent compared to declared challenger Brad Bradford at 37 percent, directly supporting trader consensus that assigns her the highest probability. Bradford, who officially entered the race as nominations opened on May 1 for the October 26 election, remains the primary alternative but trails significantly in surveys that also reflect limited backing for other contenders such as Ana Bailão or Michael Ford. This positioning stems from Chow's established incumbency and voter preference patterns in early campaign tracking, though the wide undecided share in some results leaves room for shifts if additional candidates consolidate opposition or if key local issues like traffic and housing gain prominence closer to voting day.