Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,497Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Обсяг
$2,497Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability against a reduction in the federal deficit before 2027 because official projections and enacted policies point to widening shortfalls. CBO baselines show the FY2026 deficit rising to $1.9 trillion from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025, driven by the 2025 reconciliation legislation’s tax provisions and added outlays for defense and border security. Higher tariffs have provided partial revenue offsets, yet net interest costs and mandatory spending growth continue to push totals higher through the resolution window. The administration’s FY2026 budget request and rescissions proposals have not altered this trajectory in current estimates. A reversal would require either substantially stronger-than-expected economic growth, larger-than-anticipated tariff collections, or additional spending restraint beyond measures already under consideration.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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