The by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry UK parliamentary seat, triggered by Stephen Gethins's election to the Scottish Parliament, is scheduled for 18 June 2026. Trader consensus heavily favors SNP candidate Lara Bird due to the party's prior hold on the constituency, established local campaigning momentum, and typical advantages for the incumbent party in Scottish by-elections. The five confirmed candidates—Bird for the SNP, Tanvir Ahmad for the Liberal Democrats, Jack Cruickshanks for the Conservatives, Heather Doran for Labour, and Bill Reid for Reform UK—face first-past-the-post voting with limited time for challengers to build profiles. Recent door-to-door efforts and party endorsements in the final week have reinforced Bird's position, while the short campaign window and absence of major shifts in Scottish political dynamics limit upside for other contenders.