Ondrej Lunter holds a commanding position in the Banská Bystrica Region governor race due to his incumbency as the current župan, a record of regional project delivery, and endorsements spanning multiple parties including Hlas-SD, SaS, KDH, Progresívne Slovensko, and Aliancia. He is running as an independent with a managerial focus on economic development, infrastructure, and cross-district investment rather than national ideological divides. The opposition remains fragmented, with Miroslav Suja of Republika and Roman Malatinec of Strana vidieka as the most visible challengers alongside lower-profile candidates such as Marian Kotleba. Traders price this broad coalition and absence of major controversies as decisive ahead of the October 24, 2026, vote. A late scandal, unusually high opposition turnout, or coordinated challenger withdrawal could narrow the gap, though no such shifts have materialized in recent months.