Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data has positioned the 0.2% outcome as the market leader for July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month at a 50.5% implied probability. June’s actual 0.1% print, down from May’s 0.3%, combined with July CPI showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, has reinforced expectations for contained price pressures excluding food and energy. Trader consensus reflects these releases alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts clustering near 0.15–0.25%, with the 0.3% outcome at 30.5% capturing potential upside from services or goods passthrough. The August 26 Bureau of Economic Analysis release remains the key catalyst, with probabilities sensitive to any revisions in CPI components or labor market signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.2% 51%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13.0%
0.4%+ 4.5%
$26,509 KL.
$26,509 KL.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
13%
0.2%
51%
0.3%
31%
0.4%+
5%
0.2% 51%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13.0%
0.4%+ 4.5%
$26,509 KL.
$26,509 KL.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$606 KL.
<1%
-0.1%
$807 KL.
<1%
0.0%
$970 KL.
<1%
0.1%
$2,165 KL.
13%
0.2%
$2,209 KL.
51%
0.3%
$16,685 KL.
31%
0.4%+
$3,067 KL.
5%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data has positioned the 0.2% outcome as the market leader for July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month at a 50.5% implied probability. June’s actual 0.1% print, down from May’s 0.3%, combined with July CPI showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, has reinforced expectations for contained price pressures excluding food and energy. Trader consensus reflects these releases alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts clustering near 0.15–0.25%, with the 0.3% outcome at 30.5% capturing potential upside from services or goods passthrough. The August 26 Bureau of Economic Analysis release remains the key catalyst, with probabilities sensitive to any revisions in CPI components or labor market signals.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,509Ngày kết thúc
Aug 26, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data has positioned the 0.2% outcome as the market leader for July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month at a 50.5% implied probability. June’s actual 0.1% print, down from May’s 0.3%, combined with July CPI showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, has reinforced expectations for contained price pressures excluding food and energy. Trader consensus reflects these releases alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts clustering near 0.15–0.25%, with the 0.3% outcome at 30.5% capturing potential upside from services or goods passthrough. The August 26 Bureau of Economic Analysis release remains the key catalyst, with probabilities sensitive to any revisions in CPI components or labor market signals.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$26,509Ngày kết thúc
Aug 26, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data has positioned the 0.2% outcome as the market leader for July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month at a 50.5% implied probability. June’s actual 0.1% print, down from May’s 0.3%, combined with July CPI showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core rise, has reinforced expectations for contained price pressures excluding food and energy. Trader consensus reflects these releases alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts clustering near 0.15–0.25%, with the 0.3% outcome at 30.5% capturing potential upside from services or goods passthrough. The August 26 Bureau of Economic Analysis release remains the key catalyst, with probabilities sensitive to any revisions in CPI components or labor market signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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