Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 31°C or below, anchored by official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing projecting a daily maximum of 31°C under cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly to easterly breezes around 12 km/h. Current observations show midday temperatures near 24°C, with persistent cloud cover suppressing solar heating consistent with mid-May climatology, where average highs hover around 28°C and rarely exceed 32°C early in the month. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show minimal upside risk. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects at the official observatory station, though low wind shear and moisture favor the cap; final data releases expected by evening local time.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
31°C or below 99.6%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$49,876 KL.
$49,876 KL.
May 15, 2026
31°C or below
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
31°C or below 99.6%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$49,876 KL.
$49,876 KL.
May 15, 2026
31°C or below
$9,865 KL.
100%
32°C
$4,814 KL.
<1%
33°C
$8,512 KL.
<1%
34°C
$7,027 KL.
<1%
35°C
$5,301 KL.
<1%
36°C
$3,249 KL.
<1%
37°C
$3,174 KL.
<1%
38°C
$2,141 KL.
<1%
39°C
$2,188 KL.
<1%
40°C
$1,780 KL.
<1%
41°C or higher
$1,839 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 31°C or below, anchored by official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing projecting a daily maximum of 31°C under cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly to easterly breezes around 12 km/h. Current observations show midday temperatures near 24°C, with persistent cloud cover suppressing solar heating consistent with mid-May climatology, where average highs hover around 28°C and rarely exceed 32°C early in the month. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show minimal upside risk. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects at the official observatory station, though low wind shear and moisture favor the cap; final data releases expected by evening local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Khối lượng
$49,876Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 31°C or below, anchored by official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing projecting a daily maximum of 31°C under cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly to easterly breezes around 12 km/h. Current observations show midday temperatures near 24°C, with persistent cloud cover suppressing solar heating consistent with mid-May climatology, where average highs hover around 28°C and rarely exceed 32°C early in the month. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show minimal upside risk. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects at the official observatory station, though low wind shear and moisture favor the cap; final data releases expected by evening local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$49,876Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 reaching 31°C or below, anchored by official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and World Meteorological Centre Beijing projecting a daily maximum of 31°C under cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly to easterly breezes around 12 km/h. Current observations show midday temperatures near 24°C, with persistent cloud cover suppressing solar heating consistent with mid-May climatology, where average highs hover around 28°C and rarely exceed 32°C early in the month. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show minimal upside risk. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects at the official observatory station, though low wind shear and moisture favor the cap; final data releases expected by evening local time.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp