Current forecast models from Chinese meteorological agencies point to a highest temperature in Chengdu on May 18 most likely between 29°C and 32°C, with ensemble runs showing only modest spread due to stable high-pressure influence and limited frontal activity. This tight clustering around 30–31°C explains the nearly even market-implied odds, as traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and daytime insolation. Chengdu’s subtropical monsoon climate typically brings humid conditions that moderate peak heating, while recent May observations indicate average highs near 28–30°C with occasional spikes when clear skies persist. Updated numerical weather predictions tomorrow morning will likely resolve the remaining uncertainty before resolution.